A recent study by Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) predicts that even with reduced carbon emissions, Earth’s temperature could rise by 7°C (12.6°F) by 2200. This warming could cause widespread food shortages, famine, and force people to leave coastal cities due to rising sea levels and flooding. Extreme weather events like droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, and tropical storms would become more frequent and intense.

The study highlights an urgent need for faster carbon reduction and removal efforts, as peak warming could be much higher than expected under low-to-moderate emissions scenarios. The team used a new computer model, CLIMBER-X, to simulate future global warming, considering factors like methane emissions from wetlands and landfills. Despite efforts to reduce emissions, there’s still a 10% chance that temperatures will rise by 3°C (5.4°F) by 2200.

The study warns that feedback loops, like thawing permafrost and the growth of fire-prone vegetation, could exacerbate warming. Reductions in emissions may not be enough to stop these processes, and only very low emissions could meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to below 2°C (3.6°F).

The window for keeping global warming below 2°C is rapidly closing, and urgent action is needed. According to PIK scientist Matteo Willeit, “Carbon reduction must accelerate even more quickly than previously thought” to meet the Paris target. The study emphasizes that today’s actions will determine the planet’s future and warns that Earth’s system is losing resilience, potentially triggering further warming.