What’s unfolding now is less a policy debate than a high-stakes game of chicken with real families in the middle. Mike Johnson is gambling that voters will embrace a promise of lower premiums through structural reform, even if it means ripping away what he calls artificial support for insurers. Democrats are gambling that Americans will recoil at any threat to subsidies that have quietly kept coverage within reach.

Both sides know the calendar is their enemy. When subsidies vanish on December 31, the pain will be swift and brutally visible in renewal letters and canceled plans. That’s why private talks are circling around a short-term extension paired with face-saving “reforms” both parties can spin as a win. But if those talks fail, the blame won’t just land on Washington. It will land in mailboxes, hospital waiting rooms, and empty medicine cabi.