What followed was less a policy pivot than a high‑wire act. Trump’s boast that President To Lam would cut tariffs to zero soothed investors desperate to believe the pain would be temporary. Vietnam‑linked stocks jumped, supply chain fears eased, and for a moment it looked as if brinkmanship had produced a bargain. But the timing collided with a blistering March jobs report that shattered the “cooling economy” narrative, raising a sharper question: how much more heat can the system take?

With hiring roaring and consumer demand still strong, economists began to fear that tariffs—first weapon, then bargaining chip—could become an accelerant, driving inflation back toward 4% just as the Fed hoped to stand down. In that tension lies the real risk: a president betting that voters will forgive higher prices if the jobs keep coming, and that markets will keep believing the next phone call changes everything.